Thursday, November 17, 2011

Ranking The First Overall NHL Draft Picks: Part I

The first NHL Draft was held in 1963. A grand total of twenty one players were selected, led off by Garry Monahan, who was chosen by Montreal. The following Draft saw twenty four players selected. And so on it went, in the NHL's pre-Expansion, six team era, which mercifully ended in 1968. It was in 1970 that the Draft took on meaning. This was the year of the "roulette wheel," when the Vancouver Canucks and its expansion brethren the Buffalo Sabres spun a wheel in order to determine which of them would select first. As any diehard Canucks fan will know - and if you don't know this, then you're not a true fan, sorry - Buffalo won the spin, selected Gilbert Perreault, and never looked back. The Canucks were left with the consolation prize, Dale Tallon,a decent player but one who never reached the stardom envisioned for him. That 1970 Draft was the first time when the hockey world and its observers saw a palpable result; realized that the Draft DID matter. It was also the period of ferocious expansion. The NHL had brought in six new teams in 1967. Two followed in 1970. Two more would appear in 1972. With this expansion of the league came the corresponding expansion of the Draft.

I have tried to reflect this in my rankings. I started with that 1970 Draft and continued on through to the 2008 Draft. I stopped at that year as it is still too early to judge the careers of John Tavares (2009), Taylor Hall (2010), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011.)

I settled on five criterion for these rankings:
1) Production. The numbers. Goals, Assist, Points. Simple.
2) Impact on the team which drafted them. Were they the "face" of the franchise? Did their being drafted improve the team's fortunes?
3) Hardware. Scoring Champions and MVPS received a higher rank than those whose careers were bereft of awards. Ditto for any Rookies Of The Year (of which there have been surprisingly few.) Stanley Cup championships were given priority because, in theory, the number one pick is meant to be the foundation on which winning teams are built. As we shall see, this often turns out not to be the case. But it's the reason why Vincent Le Cavalier is ranked ahead of Joe Thornton, even though Thornton is the more productive player.
4) Intangibles. Did they live up to the hype? Who was chosen after them? Did they have the "feel" of a number one pick? Was the draft year strong? The 1996 class was so legendarily abysmal that nobody truly deserved to go first.
5) The last consideration I used was simple. Would this player be the first choice if the draft were done over? This is the "hindsight test." Guy Lafleur would still have been the first pick; Dale McCourt would not have been.

These rankings are one man's opinion, and will no doubt be open to much debate. In several cases it was simply too close to call.
Eric Lindros over Dale Hawerchuk? Flip a coin. Pierre Turgeon better than Mats Sundin? If you wish. Who is REALLY the worst of them all? Your choice is as good as mine.

The Rankings:

1) Denis Potvin (Islanders, 1973) This took some soul searching, as Potvin and Mario Lemieux are clearly the two best Number One picks of all time. But I have to give the (very) slight nod to Potvin. Both he and Lemieux won The Calder Trophy Rookie Of the Year.) Both were captains of Stanley Cup teams. But Potvin's impact on the Islanders was immediate. In his first season, the team improved by twenty six points and cut its goals against by one hundred. It became a playoff team in his second season and did not miss the post-season until after his retirement, a streak of fourteen years. In contrast, Mario's teams missed the playoffs in five of his first six seasons. And his two Cup winning teams were hardly in the class of Potvin's dynasty, which won four in a row and NINETEEN consecutive playoff series, marking it as the greatest dynasty in League history. And Potvin had all the rest: Three Norris Trophies as Best Defenceman. Lived up to the hype and then some. Changed the landscape of the organization. Durable. (another edge over Mario.) He was still close to the top of his game when he retired. Plus he was a defenseman, a more challenging position.
Also, I'm an Islanders fan. Biased bonus points.

2) Mario Lemieux (Penguins, 1984) Two Stanley Cups. Three time MVP. Six time scoring champion. An Olympic Gold Medal. Captain. Cancer survivor. Owner. The most exciting offensive player of his generation (Sorry Gretzky fans.) The Penguins all time leading scorer. Mentor to Sidney Crosby. And like Potvin, he never left his team for another. But he lacked, in the early part of his career, Potvin's intense desire to win, and his championship teams never reached the Islanders' level of greatness. But it's closeohsoclose.

3) Guy Lafleur (Canadiens, 1971) For six years, 1974 - 1980, there was not a more dominant and exciting player than "The Flower." Six consecutive 50 goal and 100 point seasons. Four championships. Two MVP awards. Three scoring titles. The Playoff MVP award. The most recognizable hockey personality of his era. The Habs' all time leading scorer. But he wasn't durable later in his career, his numbers and the team faded badly after the retirement of Ken Dryden, and I'm not liking his ill-fated comeback so much. Still, an obvious great. He, Potvin, and Lemieux are the epitomes of what a first overall pick should be.

4) Sidney Crosby (Penguins, 2005) Normally, I would say "too soon," but "Sid the Kid" is a special case. His early career is actually BETTER than Lemieux's: A scoring title and MVP award, an Olympic Gold Medal, a championship AND a second Finals appearance. He makes all those around him better. And, he has avoided the mistakes Mario made at the start of his career (the selfishness and aloofness, the indifference to defence) thanks in no small part to "Le Magnifique" himself. How his concussion issues will play out is a matter of speculation, but few players have accomplished more in such a short period. Keys to the pantheon which houses The Big Three await him.

5) Gilbert Perreault (Sabres, 1970) But he never won a Stanley Cup! True,but he WAS the face of the franchise for fifteen years, he won a bunch of hardware,and he was, after Lafleur, the most dynamic offensive player of his generation. Over two decades after his retirement, he remains Buffalo's career leader in goals, assists, and points. Buffalo was a terrific team and Perreault was its leader. He was certainly flawed, but there have been few better number one picks.

6) Mike Modano (North Stars, 1988) I am not really a Modano fan. He may be the highest scoring American born player in history, but I've always considered him to be somewhat overrated. He never had that "one big season." His career numbers are mostly the result of playing forever. And I hate that he played a final and fruitless season with Detroit rather than retiring as a career Star. But, he did win a Cup, he was easily the most recognizable and popular player in franchise history, and did everything which he was drafted to do. So it's with a grudging reluctance that I rank him this high.

7) Dale Hawerchuk (Jets, 1981) Never won a championship. Never really came close. Was a moody, complaining "coach killer." But the team improved by an NHL record 48 (!) points in his rookie season. That matters. As does his Calder Trophy, his 103 point rookie season (he was the first rookie to achieve this) and his status as THE Winnipeg Jet. He was drafted to produce points, and he did. The franchise's all time leading scorer. A Hall Of Famer. Just not quite at that super elite level.

Part II to follow.

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